How long has this day been coming? Just how long has every Apple fan been waiting to have a large, MSM news outlet like MSN Money step up to the podium and say:
A genuine leader in this regard at the moment is Apple [...] which is on track to emerge later this year as the single most influential, life-changing and powerful company in the technology and consumer electronics universe. In a few years, it could even become the most valuable.
The latest step in Apple’s amazing transformation from industry doormat to kingpin will come in the next 30 days, as investors and consumers come to recognize a set of powerful catalysts that have the potential to kick Apple’s sales and earnings to levels that will shock skeptics and possibly even surprise optimists.
Indeed, doormat to kingpin. I’ve said before that there is no hotter tech company on planet Earth right now than Apple, and that includes Google by a slim margin. When you’ve got it you’ve got it, and Apple’s about to hit a stride it’s never seen before, including its glory back in the early-years heyday. Apple’s not just good for good’s sake; it’s gearing up for something big.
But put buzz aside for a second. From an investment standpoint, how about this glowing endorsement?
Apple shares, now trading around $90 after doubling from 2004 levels, could very well double again by 2010, putting the company in the very highest tier of global industrial titans. If you have ever kicked yourself for not buying Apple four years ago when you bought your first iPod, you should go for it now during this market weakness.
Couldn’t agree more. Full disclosure: I own several hundred shares of Apple, and it’s the one security I feel comfortable holding for the very long term. I’d be willing to bet that Apple shares stand a chance at doubling before 2010, because even the most prescient analysts in the world only know Apple’s roadmap inasmuch as Apple wants them to know.
I have no doubt Apple has things in its product/strategy roadmap that we don’t know about and that will serve as major growth drivers. We know about the full-video iPod (or have at least speculated about it), OSX Leopard, AppleTV, the iPhone. But what about the things that have been speculated but not confirmed?
What about the ultraportable MacBook Pro with flash storage? What about touchscreen displays? What about a tablet Mac? What about the things we can’t ask “what about?” yet because we’ve no idea what they are?
It’s been said that Jobs has one thing left to do before calling it a career: take back the PC market from Microsoft. But to do that, head-to-head, mano-a-mano, PC warfare won’t work. The arena is broader this time, the PC’s technology divested into other areas of our lives, and to win the war Apple must win the smaller but critically important battles for digital music and movies, the living room, software and market appeal by making incredibly advanced technology more accessible than ever.
The PC war is being waged on so many fronts, which, believe it or not, behooves Apple more than Microsoft. Technology outstrips the average user’s ability to understand it, which, again, falls squarely into Apple’s wheelhouse.
Pardon my dramatics, but if Apple’s field general makes the right decisions, we’ll all have a chance to witness a company with all the potential in the world — after many hitches and near-death experiences — finally realize it. The armies are amassing now, and only a fool can’t hear the drums.
41 responses so far ↓
Dmitri // March 18, 2007 at 3:37 am
I would agree with market assessment in general. However, one has to point out that Apple’s success is due to home users, not business users. Apple’s support for business computing, for using Macs for either development or administration of a business is a bit thin on the ground, seeing how companies think first of Windows support, and later of everything else.
There is a also a question of whether Apple hardware is as much value for the money compared to PC hardware, especially for high-performance computing.
kefumna // March 18, 2007 at 3:43 am
but leopard isn’t out yet. what if something is amiss? maybe leopard sucks and doesn’t live up to people’s expectations (and there are some pretty high expectations!). i’m not saying microsoft will win ‘cos vista already sucks, but my punt is on Google - they have been working on a very special phone of their own, and you know, it might just be one that people will be able to use cost wise!
Carlitos // March 18, 2007 at 10:58 am
>There is a also a question of whether Apple >hardware is as much value for the money >compared to PC hardware, especially for high->performance computing.
The same old FUD. True in the 80s but no longer. You’ve got it backwards: Apple does not compete in the grey-box ,cut-throat margin segment of the market, but in the areas where it does compete, it’s computers offer more for less money. This has been discussed ad naseum on the web, but the following comparisons will suffice:
http://reviews.cnet.com/4531-10921_7-6625581.html
http://www.systemshootouts.org/shootouts/desktop/2006/0809_dt3200.html
Second: Apple taking back the PC market? Give me a break. That shipped sailed when Appled refused to license its OS in the early 80’s. No matter how atrocious and technologically inferior windows is in comparison to other alternatives I do not foresee Apple having more than 20% of the CONSUMER market, and even that is wishful thinking. Windows is too entrenched in the BUSINESS marketplace and all of the advantages of being perceived as “the standard” will keep it entrenched: IT departments stick with what they know, most apps are Windows based, Exchange servers…..and so on.
You tangentially touched on this in the article, but the market where Apple does have the potential to beat Windows is in the consumer electronics arena. Apple could be the next Sony.
Mr.Pantic // March 18, 2007 at 11:29 am
Ummm… There ain’t gonna be a Google phone, or tablet, or anything of that kind.. not just yet. Let’s not forget that Google’s CEO sits on Apple’s board of directors, as one of them. Only days ago did he mention at a technology lecture that “they” (Google), are working very closely with Apple in particular, as they both share the same goals (whatever they may be - World domination anyone? In a synergistic satisfying outcome for everyone?? - minus Microsoft, its pals and the top tier of todays technology sector - completely absorbed)
Ahh yesss… Payback’s a bitch, irradicate the glitch and make the switch!
henk // March 18, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Dear Dmitri, wat good is an awesome pc if it has to run Vista? Think about that…
What is business-computing anyway? Expensive licences for MS server and a few hundred boxes running Windows+Office?
Besides, Microsoft is losing market share anyway, if not to the Mac then to Linux.
They have been too busy monopolising and putting glut to market. In my opinion they put the whole pc sector to shame.
As one of the richest and biggest corporations in the world they have missed every single opportunity to innovate and deliver, now it’s game over for them.
Jeff Ventura // March 18, 2007 at 12:15 pm
henk: I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say it’s game over for Microsoft, but the horizons at which they stare are rapidly changing, and their place in the world isn’t going to be as big, or as comfortable, as it once was.
Cameron baird // March 18, 2007 at 12:36 pm
It’s really pretty simple. The tide has turned as it always does for monopolies. National and more importantly, international opinion has changed, the entire world is looking to either break them or copy them or come up with their own OS to replace the monster. They have 98% of the market? There is only one direction for them to go…….. down! Apple has the most admired OS on the planet and only 6% of the market. Which way do you suppose they will go? I predict 45% market share in 10 years. Linux will have 30% whats left? Plan on it!!
David H Dennis // March 18, 2007 at 12:58 pm
One thing some of you are missing is that Apple doesn’t need to take 100% market share to win.
If Apple could take 17-20% of the market, it would be considered a top player and I think that’s all Steve realistically wants.
I don’t think he’s ever been particularly interested in the low end of the market. That can stay with HP and Dell for all he cares.
He appears to be over 10% in notebooks (NPD share + whatever percentage Apple retail stores have), and that’s a pretty good start. He’ll probably win back most high-end desktops once the dual quad core Mac Pro is introduced. (Unfortunately gaming is not a Mac stronghold so I don’t expect him doing well in that market, but he should get overwhelming share with content creators).
I think it’s realistic for him to hold 10% of the overall market in the next year or two, and continue increasing market share for a while longer than that.
D
Jeff Ventura // March 18, 2007 at 1:27 pm
David: I totally agree, and I never said or suggested Apple will take 100% marketshare. That’s just a ludicrous idea. I can see Apple eventually taking 10%, and maybe 20% if things get wildly successful, but not much more.
It will always be a Windows world primarily.
Dmitri // March 18, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Hmm, by business computing I mean business applications, such as accounting and business management apps. I suppose the requirement for MS Office can be partially mitigated with OpenOffice, and I guess MS Exchange can be replaced by POP3 mail (though I doubt anyone will argue that Exchange is superior).
I do agree about Vista though. We’re sticking to XP for the time being.
Joe S. // March 18, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Some interesting reading about marketshare & markets:
http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/RDM.Tech.Q1.07/9E601E8E-2ACC-4866-A91B-3371D1688E00.html
Brian Purkiss // March 18, 2007 at 2:25 pm
Agreed. Apple just rocks. They’re on the rise!
I’m really excited about what is still to come!!!
jbelkin // March 18, 2007 at 3:27 pm
They really are in two different fields now. 8 to 15 years ago, the corporate market paid TOP dollar and invested in everything remotely tech.
Now, that market is tapped out - it’s about buying the cheapest, most commodity drive and if possible - a switch to Linux - especially in interntional markets.
This market is huge but growing at a slow rate and while it is 200 million computers strong, an OEM license of Vista costs around $30 per PC.
Conversely, the SoHo home office is now driven by “value” buying (like everything we buy) and because the internet has a)essentially falttened the playing field and b) its sheer size and nimbleness prevents MS from “buying” up distribution - people can give full consideration to Apple in addition to the obvious factors such as: better looking products, no malware/viruses and the ipod halo factor, etc , etc …
BTW, Apple is already at about 60% of the revenue of MS and unlike MS, not throwing away shareholder value by chasing after markets where they haven’t a clue (spending $4 BILLION on MSN to take out AOL and LOSING?) or like the Zune where MS triumphed they had 30,000 retail outlets selling the Zune and 6 months later, if NPD sales figures are correct, MS has sold about 30,000 Zunes or ONE per store?
For servers, Office and OS, MS has amazing margins - better at printing money than the US mint but what are they doing with it? They have lost a staggering $25 BILLION on non-starter consumer products they are hopelessly outclassed (Talking barmey’s, home media PC’s, webtv, watches, etc, etc …) Shareholders of MS have to wonder why they are propping up Steve & Bill’s holdings when all they are doing is flushing it away on some new jackalope project.
Faugh a Ballaugh! « Island in the Net // March 18, 2007 at 4:04 pm
[...] 18th, 2007 by Island in the Net War drums from Apple. « Graceful Flavor The PC war is being waged on so many fronts, which, believe it or not, behooves Apple more than [...]
theopinion // March 18, 2007 at 6:38 pm
just posted and article on my blog about the mac vs pc saga. I’ve lived both worlds and higly favor Apple. Its on the rise and i dont see it stopping. good article
goinglikesixty // March 18, 2007 at 7:16 pm
When Apple was at 20, I thought it would be cool to have one share framed from that company that does that. So I have one hanging on my wall.
Heh.
Top Posts « WordPress.com // March 18, 2007 at 7:58 pm
[...] War drums from Apple. [Digg] How long has this day been coming? Just how long has every Apple fan been waiting to have a large, MSM news […] [...]
finalembrace // March 18, 2007 at 9:44 pm
If Apple wanted to put any serious dent in Microsoft’s dominance of PCs in the consumer world, they’d be smart to first crack into the business world.
Most people use a home computer for pleasure, but are forced to use a computer at work.
Most of my colleagues in the funeral industry won’t even consider a Mac because they’d have to learn a new operating system. Half of them don’t even grasp the basic functions of XP or Office.
Current Mac users either already use Mac in their office or have been able to learn a new operating system because of strong desire or greater intelligence.
Plus, making proprietary software and hardware is a way to alienate a large portion of consumers who haven’t sipped the Apple Kool-aid.
Has Apple turned around their fortunes? Of course. How? By reinventing old processes and making them exciting. The iPod is a better Walkman, the iPhone is promised to be a better phone, the Airport is an easier way to create a wireless network.
Who carries a tape player anymore? Few, because the iPod changed music.
Macs haven’t changed the computing world. In fact, few people I know understand what makes a Mac so great. We’ve seen the commercials, but Macs are missing the “Aha” factor that lets a consumer know why they’re a better purchase.
“You mean iPods let me carry thousands of songs without tapes or cds? Aha!”
“If we get this GPS system we won’t have to stop for directions - AHA!”
“If we use a Mac we won’t have to… Wait, what was that guy doing. Acting like a dork? Huh?”
Apple will continue to be the niche maker who captures a rabid fan base and a few others who get sucked in, but they need the “aha” to bring in truly large groups of basic users that want the simplicity and uniformity of a microwave.
jimhap // March 18, 2007 at 10:25 pm
I do agree. Apple’s inventory is growing a lot. And Microsoft really may go down. You wouldn’t have to buy Microsoft’s EXPENSIVE server licenses in order to have one. In fact, I made one out of Linux!(Apache/PHP/mySQL) And it is free!!!
henk, I agree. Why that many people have to stick with Windows?? Linux is MUCH faster(kind of).
And if you heard the tech buzz, they warn “don’t buy Windows Vista Basic, because it’s just like Windows XP, pointless, and a waste of money”.
Michelle // March 18, 2007 at 10:54 pm
Apple did have a good thing going when it decided to launch its’ iPod and all of its’ variations. It could easily be said that the iPod will probably be known as one of the best technological inventions of this century. Not long after the iPod was released, people just couldn’t get enough of it and you do have to admit that that was pretty impressive. I personally don’t believe Apple will take over as far as its’ market share in home or business computing: Windows is too reknown and too wide-spread for that. Microsoft has made a household name out of Windows and I don’t think that the Mac will ever come up to that. I don’t deny the fact that everyone I know that has ever used a Mac say they like it better. Most of those people do, but the problem with Macs are with their proprietary hardware. That makes it perfect for software made for Mac but you don’t really see the widespread acceptance of Mac from other software companies. They have pretty much put in their bid with PCs and in that I mean Windows. Linux too is a very good operating system, a lot better than Windows but most of the people who use computers are not exactly computer-literate. Now just about everyone owns a computer. Only on the business end would you expect to see more from Linux because then they would hire people who would know the OS with the added addition that Linux can be tailored to fit the business’ needs. I believe that Microsoft is able to hold up its’ market share because of two factors: it is well-known and widely-used, and many software companies do write their software primarily for Windows-based systems. If it came down to innovating and creative ideas, then Apple would win hands down because a lot of Microsoft’s ideas were ideas that have already been seen in other areas: Windows widget engine was a rip-off of Yahoo!s widget engine. The multi-tab feature in Internet Explorer 7 was already done in Mozilla Firefox and had been for some time. Microsoft doesn’t really come out with too many new ideas, granted some of them might have been genuine innovative ideas from Microsoft but not many. Microsoft got it’s fame from taking an idea that was already thought of by Xerox and then done by Steve Jobs when he created the first Apple, and then Bill Gates took that a step farther by making his OS able to be used with a variety of hardware. Not to say that Windows is better than either Mac or Linux, because I personally believe that it isn’t, but it is the one that everyone knows about. That is why Microsoft will still have a pretty good hold on it’s market share for some time to come.
spacecowboy // March 18, 2007 at 11:22 pm
Apple has been doing a lot of things right. Besides the iPod the Mac has more than a 60% share of the creative marketplace. That would be businesses. Hmmm, would that include ohhh, say New York Times, Business week most magazine and newspaper publications? How bout Architects and the graphic arts space. Would that be a business? I’ll be watching documentaries and attorneys would have their Apple Macbook Pros w/apple logo looking right into the camera. Apple is also doing well in the media area because of Final Cut Pro. I don’t know many consumers that would pay $1,200 for a video editing program. If your talking about the rest of the business world that is running windows? Hot digidy dog, you mean Apple has all of that marketplace left to capture? Wow! Could that be Apple’s strategy?
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gwhiz // March 19, 2007 at 12:10 am
Jeff, Apple has a lot of BUZZ right now around some things that are shipping or about to ship and will ALWAYS have BUZZ and speculation around what’s coming (whatever that might be).
So far as what we’ve seen of Leopard… it’s not going to set the world on fire. I know, I’m an ADC Developer.
iPhone’s pretty cool.
AppleTV… we’ll see in the next several days once our units start arriving on the 23rd (if not earlier).
Tablets, UMPC, multi-touch mega platforms, yada yada… fun to speculate. But, in the end, we’re still a tiny little blip on the radar (and growing).
Keep in mind, most of the high profile switchers we’re seeing (as well as some of the switchers I personally know) aren’t switching at the exclusion of their PCs! No one really talks about this… they’re keeping their PCs and relegating them to Ubuntu or Windows version something or other. They’re NOT decommissioning them though.
Rare case of the pie getting bigger (and Apple’s probably accounting for more than their traditional share of that growth).
Linux is growing..... « Wow Maniac // March 19, 2007 at 12:35 am
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Harshith // March 19, 2007 at 4:32 am
I’m indeed very sad to hear that a control freak like Apple is getting popular. They’re much worse than Microsoft in DRM. They even lock up their hardware, and Apple software get more preferential treatment. And, as for Apple taking over the PC world - you forgot Linux which is growing at a tremendous pace. Apple is already considering not to allow third party apps on their much hyped iPhone.
“Jobs says he doesn’t want anyone to install third party software on his iPhone…excuse me, but it’s not your phone bub, it’s the users phone. That is one of the problems, these companies don’t sell products anymore, they only license their usage, so they feel they can do whatever they want with it.” - Shay Stephens, on Ubuntu Forums.
It would be a very sad day indeed, if Apple takes over the PC market- if it ever does, which is very unlikely. In which we have to use only Apple designed sexy products which can only be repaired and serviced by Apple, and Apple restricts everything third party. Linux is getting less and less of a geek playground, and I’m sure it will dominate the PC world in this lifetime.
DotMySpot // March 19, 2007 at 8:02 am
I think apple will be churning out fantastic products in the future.. i’m actually looking forward for the iPhone
icedmocha // March 19, 2007 at 9:34 am
As a long-time Mac user and enthusiast, I am happy to see Apple finally getting the respect and success it deserves.
me // March 19, 2007 at 9:53 am
“Pardon my dramatics, but if Apple’s field general makes the right decisions, we all we have a chance to witness a company with all the potential in the world”
Proofread much?
Jeff Ventura // March 19, 2007 at 9:57 am
harshith: boy, I can’t agree with your comment.
Mind telling me how Apple locks up its hardware? The phone, maybe, but that’s a far cry from issuing a blanket statement like “Apple locks up its hardware.” Apple’s hardware uses industry standard components, has aggressive pricing for most segments, and can now run Windows and/or Linux.
And sorry — Linux isn’t going ANYWHERE on the desktop for MAINSTREAM users. Enthusiasts and tech geeks will use it and love it, but the mainline market? No. Not for a VERY LONG TIME, if ever.
Linux DOES NOT EQUAL commodity computing for the average user. It’s a specialized OS, great for servers and embedded devices, but as a desktop OS for the majority of users, it’s going NOWHERE.
Take that to the bank.
As far as desktop OS market domination, it’s been Windows and it will always be Windows. My article says nothing of Apple taking over Microsoft’s domination position. I’ve said before on this blog that Apple will never do that. It would never want to.
Jeff Ventura // March 19, 2007 at 10:07 am
me: apparently not. Good catch.
deadtank // March 19, 2007 at 2:55 pm
“industry doormat to kingpin” - stellar.
Nice to hear alot of people stoked on Apple, but likewise for comments about how, well - Apple can be just as bad or worse.
Does competition here create things fresh, focused or just flashy?
Ben // March 19, 2007 at 3:17 pm
Hmm, I always must think of the following universal wisdom when I read statements like these; “when two technologies compete for the market, the inferior will win …” I don’t know who’s to quote on that, but I have seen a lot of examples of that sad “truth” in the past …
Jeff Ventura // March 19, 2007 at 4:09 pm
Ben: beta v. VHS.
IBM clone v. Mac.
You’re right: there have been countless examples of the phenomenon you’re talking about.
lost tumbleweed War drums from Apple « // March 19, 2007 at 4:43 pm
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[...] War drums from Apple. How long has this day been coming? Just how long has every Apple fan been waiting to have a large, MSM news outlet […] [...]
Anonymous // March 19, 2007 at 9:03 pm
I love reading this post. After switching from PC to Mac 3 years ago I’ve never looked back. I’ve purchased 8 macs since that time, some of them gifts to family members who were PC users. Each of which is now in love with Apple.
Sambro2 // March 19, 2007 at 10:36 pm
“when two technologies compete for the market, the inferior will win …”
It’s not the fact that something is inferior that makes it win, it’s more about simplicity, availability, cost, design, critical mass, marketing, I could go on for days and never get to inferiority.
There are many inferior mp3 players, some were around before the ipod, yet it managed to beat them and not suck. If you think the zune is beter and it is playing the role of beta, well, get help now.
Addison Royce // March 20, 2007 at 3:20 am
The majority of home users (and to a large extent, even business customers) are mostly interested in emails….. Furthermore, most folk are just now discovering how to share thier photos….. For that, dear friends, any old PC will do….. most of the rest is simply technology overkill and clever marketing. As to Apple’s stock, yep, buy into that….. just as I’ll buy into the fact that ‘most major stocks’ will go up and down but keep on growing over the next 10 years. BWoD (by way of disclosure), understand that I own more Macs than I do PCs.
Harshith // March 20, 2007 at 4:48 am
Hey, Jeff. You preach your mantra without knowing what you’re talking about. As for Apple locking up its hardware, OS X is not supposed to be run on non Apple computers.
Apple’s lock-in extends beyond their hardware. They’re more than happy to accept open source formats into their programs…but when it comes time to save your work? You’re stuck with one of their proprietary formats.
Want to import your mbox files into Mail? Sorry, Tiger doesn’t work with mbox. Well, it does, but if you want Spotlight to work with Mail, you’ll need to save your messages in the undocumented and proprietary .emlx format.
I can go on and on about the other apps (iCal, Address Book, etc.). Speaking of Address Book, sure, you can export vCards but you’ll find that the fields are not always kept intact upon importation into other programs (URL fields always break when introducing vCards into Evolution).
Or maybe you can read up on Ron Braun’s thoughts and what Apple really thinks about “open source.”
As far as the OS “not running well on any standard PC,” have you forgotten about NeXTSTEP? NeXT was all about hardware lock-in until it was clear as day that the business model was a failure and the OS was ported to other architectures, including x86. Anyone who knew about the history of NeXT already knew about the existence of OS X on x86. It certainly was no “secret” as SJ was touting through his RDF.
OSx86 has plenty of people running OS X on generic PC boxes. Apple deliberately breaks OS X through incremental upgrades in an effort to discourage this cohort.
If Apple wanted to, they could release OS X for x86 right now. But SJ loves his 2% marketshare.
One last thing, isn’t the TPM enforcement a form of DRM? I believe so. Why else would Apple disregard BIOS in favor of EFI? (Hint: Has nothing to do with using ‘new’ technology.)
As for Linux still being a geek playground, why don’t you ask how many people use Linux as their primary desktop? Stop living in a dream world, boy.
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